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April 3, 2010
 

Deepak Fertilizer - DEFR - Indian Commodity Play

Deepak Fertilizer and Petrochemicals Corporation Limited (DFPCL), aka Deepak Fertilizer has taken the responsibility to improve India’s farm output. Given that our overall theme is to focus on commodities - fertilizer is a no brainer. Their expansion into specialty malls for interiors and exteriors seems suspect. The company is trading at a decent P/E multiple of 7.2x - as demand for commodities picks up - you can see this doubling.


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Filed under  //   deepak fertilizer   deepakfert   defr   india   research   stocks  

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March 20, 2010
 

Gladwell Time

And how did Burry get so good at picking stocks? BY STUDYING!

Yup, doing the work.

This is Gladwell time.

We live in a country where no one wants to do the work.

Oh, I know that’s an overstatement. But most people want to watch television. They want to focus on their image. Is it any wonder they’re left behind?

Not that you need a formal education to make it. You can’t learn the stock market in school. You’ve got to learn it on your own, like the music business.

via ritholtz.com

Many people fail to realize how much time and effort is required to find good stocks. This is an excerpt from The Big Picture... written by a guest blogger on Michael Lewis (Liar's Poker fame) who's recently published a book called the Big Short - featuring Dr Burry (who been talked about here). Follow the links to read more...

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Filed under  //   education   investing   investor   stocks  

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March 14, 2010
 

Potash Corp - POT - The Commodity Play

As I promised, I'd be back with some investment ideas. But before that, let me share with you how I got started.

Before I invest in a stock, I try to figure out where (or what) the mega trend is. If it's logical, then I try to narrow down to few good companies that benefit from that trend. Then I sit my but* down and research information to prepare an investment thesis. In the old days, it used to be as much as I could possibly get my hands on to convince myself that the company was worth investing. Today, I just write investment considerations - bullet points (watch out for my next post).

In November of 2007, I worked around the idea of fertilizer's being a sure shot bet. The logic was fairly simple:
  1. People still need to eat food. 
  2. Arable land is decreasing. 
  3. Fertilizers help increase the land's yield, producing more food.
There. That's the basic fundamentals. Now for the details: I bought Potash Corp (no option play, it was just ordinary stock) you can read the attached report. 

What happened after my recommendation? Well I made a tonne of money on that... :) See the chart below...


I did lose some upside, hey, you don't always win (completely). But this time, I'm looking at the fundamentals again - more than a year after the crash in the US stock markets - and I still believe POT is going to do better. From a technical pov, POT was showing a steady up-trend (before I bought my recent call option). If you're into technicals, then check out this chart below. What you see happen is a "gap" and when that happens, usually you can expect more upside to come (hey technical gurus... correct me if I'm wrong). Honestly, I wish there wasn't a gap up like that... I prefer consistently performing stocks, those that move up slowly at say 1% each day :) (Do the maths).

POTc1dl1654.png

I'm definitely long term, but there's no harm in making some short term money if possible. So if you understand options, you'll be glad to know that I bought POT Jun 150 Call Option for 1.25. Which means that I'm expecting the price of POT to reach 150 by Jun. Could be a far fetched call... but hey, I'm already up 130% on this option. Who's complaining?!?

Read more: Money Morning (Coincidentally, the same theory and stock today).

Disclaimer (READ THIS): I'm not an expert, and not authorized to give you financial advice or any recommendations. I'm just telling you what I did. Use your own decision making brain cells. Just some free tips: Always keep a Trailing Stop. Stick to your Position Sizing. Smile - because tomorrow is going to be better.

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Filed under  //   ideas   investing   options   POT   Potash   stocks  

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August 6, 2009
 

Bombay Stock Exchange BSE Sensex - 380+ pts fall!

via bseindia.com

Looks like BSE just fell off a cliff... FIIs had enough fun???

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Filed under  //   bse   fall   india   stocks  

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August 3, 2009
 

Bombay Stock Exchange BSE Sensex - 250+ pts rally!

via bseindia.com

Well, what do we have here... another rally... so perhaps I was wrong! Almost touching 16,000 - time to look for a parachute?

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Filed under  //   bse   india   rally   stocks  

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August 1, 2009
 

Bombay Stock Exchange BSE Sensex - 280+ pts rally!

via bseindia.com

Looking at the movements in the BSE, I get curious whether these 200+ point swings recently are nothing but a glitch or some group trying to manipulate the market. Hmm... only time will tell. (Anyone understand technicals or behind-the-scenes better, please shoot a comment)

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Filed under  //   2009   bse   india   rally   stocks  

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July 25, 2009
 

Bombay Stock Exchange - BSE SENSEX 140+ pts rally!

via bseindia.com

Looks like we're on a run here... how far?

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Filed under  //   2009   bse   india   rally   stocks  

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July 23, 2009
 

Bombay Stock Exchange BSE Sensex - 380+ pts rally!

via bseindia.com

The BSE-Sensex was trading with gains of around 380+ points (2.6%). Other Asian markets were also trading with significant gains. Benchmark indices of Hong Kong (up 2.9%) and China (up 1%) were among the leading gainers. Stocks in Europe have opened mixed. Are we at the edge?

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Filed under  //   2009   bse   india   rally   stocks  

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July 22, 2009
 

Talk About Volatility!

via bseindia.com

First you have 200+ pts and then you have -200 pts! Like I said, Indian markets are overvalued - http://jpm.cc/dont-believe-me-when-i-say-indian-bse-sensex

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Filed under  //   2009   bse   fall   india   stocks  

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July 13, 2009
 

BSE Sensex - Another 100 pt drop!!

via bseindia.com

And we do another 100 pt drop (almost 200 pt) Are we getting closer to a P/E of 12??

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Filed under  //   2009   bse   fall   india   stocks  

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